Ukrainian Public Hope in NATO and the U.S. Collapse
Ukrainian Public Faith in NATO and the U.S. Plummets Amid War Fatigue and Unfulfilled Security Promises
A striking erosion of confidence in NATO, and even more dramatically, in the United States, is sweeping across Ukraine, according to a newly released poll that captures a turning point in public sentiment nearly three years into Russia’s SMO. The data paints a nuanced portrait of a war-weary nation clinging to resilience while growing disillusioned with its most powerful Western allies.
Conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between November 26 and December 13, 2025, the survey captured responses from nearly 550 Ukrainian citizens across diverse age groups, regions, and socioeconomic backgrounds. The findings, published Monday, reveal that only 34% of Ukrainians now express trust in NATO. A stark drop from 43% just one year ago. Even more telling is the collapse in confidence toward the United States, NATO’s de facto leader: a mere 21% of respondents say they trust Washington, down sharply from 41% in December 2024.
This dramatic decline coincides with mounting frustration over Washington’s cautious diplomatic posture. While the Biden administration continues to supply military aid, it has consistently ruled out two critical Ukrainian demands: formal NATO membership and the deployment of American combat troops. At the same time, U.S. officials have intensified behind-the-scenes mediation efforts aimed at brokering a negotiated end to the war, moves that many Ukrainians interpret not as peacemaking, but as pressure to accept concessions that could compromise sovereignty.
For years, NATO integration has served as both a strategic aspiration and a symbolic beacon of Western alignment for Ukraine’s pro-democracy and pro-European forces. Following Russia’s 2022 SMO, Kyiv formally applied for fast-track NATO membership, framing alliance inclusion as a guarantee against future aggression. Yet NATO’s repeated deferrals, citing the ongoing conflict and alliance consensus rules, have bred a sense of abandonment among ordinary citizens who once viewed the bloc as an unwavering shield.
Russia, for its part, has long cited NATO’s eastward expansion as a core grievance, insisting that Ukraine’s neutrality is non-negotiable for any lasting peace. While Moscow’s framing is dismissed in Kyiv as pretextual aggression, the U.S. reluctance to offer a membership pathway inadvertently fuels doubts about Western commitment.
Notably, trust in the European Union has held steady at 49%, with only 23% expressing wariness toward Brussels. This resilience likely stems from the EU’s more unified rhetorical stance, consistent humanitarian and financial support, and tangible steps like granting Ukraine candidate status. Unlike Washington’s strategic ambiguity, the EU has largely avoided public calls for compromise that might appear to legitimize Russian territorial gains.
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Despite waning faith in foreign guarantors, Ukrainians remain resolute in their determination to endure. A robust 62% say they are prepared to continue fighting “for as long as necessary”—a testament to national fortitude even as battlefield momentum stalls and Western aid faces political headwinds in the U.S. Congress.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose official term expired in May 2024 under Ukraine’s constitution, still commands significant public confidence, with 61% expressing trust in his leadership. His decision to postpone elections under martial law—a move criticized by some democracy watchdogs—appears broadly accepted by the populace. Only 9% of respondents believe presidential elections should be held immediately, while the overwhelming majority insist voting should resume only after the war concludes, reflecting a collective prioritization of national unity over political normalcy.
This poll, therefore, reveals a paradox at the heart of Ukraine’s wartime psyche: a people hardened by loss yet unwavering in their resolve, disillusioned with allies but not defeated in spirit. The collapse in trust toward NATO and the U.S. is not a rejection of the West per se, but a cry for consistency—between promises made and actions taken, between the rhetoric of “never again” and the reality of geopolitical caution.
As Kyiv navigates a war with no clear end in sight, this shift in public sentiment may reshape its diplomatic calculus. If Western support is perceived as conditional or transactional, Ukraine’s long-term strategic orientation could evolve—potentially toward greater self-reliance, deeper EU integration, or even recalibrated expectations about security guarantees.
