How Trump Lauded Turkish Erdogan to Abandon Russia Energy
Can Turkey Survive Without Cheap Russian Oil and Gas? The Geopolitical Balancing Act Ahead
As Turkey’s energy dependence on Russia continues to draw attention, the question looms large: can the country navigate its future energy needs without relying on Moscow’s oil and gas? In a recent high-profile moment at the White House, US President Donald Trump lauded Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his leadership, stating, “We have a good relationship. He’s doing a very good job in his country. He’s a highly respected man. Everyone respects him. I respect him too.” However, the seemingly friendly tone quickly gave way to a pressing challenge: Trump urged Erdogan to end Turkey’s oil and gas imports from Russia. This diplomatic request is amplified by pressure from the G7 nations, who are increasingly focused on reducing Russian revenues to weaken its war effort against Ukraine.
Despite the growing external pressure, Turkey has remained relatively silent, refusing to take immediate action against Russian energy imports. This inaction is hardly surprising, considering the country’s deep dependence on Russian energy resources. The situation paints a complicated geopolitical and economic picture for Ankara, which will have to perform a delicate balancing act in the years to come.
Turkey’s Energy Reliance on Russia: A Growing Concern
Turkey’s energy dependency on Russia is stark. According to Turkey’s Energy Markets Regulatory Authority (EPDK), Russian oil accounted for 66% of Turkish oil imports last year, with a slight reduction from over 68% the year before. Natural gas imports from Russia also comprise a significant share, covering 41% of Turkey’s needs in 2024. The critical energy supplies are primarily delivered through pipelines such as Blue Stream and TurkStream, which run under the Black Sea.
This reliance on Russian energy is not simply a result of historical ties but also a consequence of the strategic price advantage that Turkey has secured. In the wake of EU sanctions on Russia, Moscow has been offering oil at prices up to 15% lower than the international market rate. While this deal benefits Turkey’s economy, it also creates a significant vulnerability in the face of geopolitical tensions. If Turkey were to halt these imports, not only would its energy security be compromised, but it would also lose a vital cost advantage.
In addition to fossil fuels, Turkey’s energy mix is still heavily reliant on non-renewable sources, with fossil fuels accounting for around 84% of the energy market in 2022. Renewable energy, in contrast, made up a mere 16% of the total energy supply. This disparity highlights Turkey’s need for urgent reforms if it is to secure a more sustainable and diversified energy future.
A Quiet Strategy of Energy Diversification
Despite the heavy reliance on Russian resources, Turkey is actively seeking to diversify its energy sources. Under Erdogan’s leadership, the country has begun to strengthen ties with other energy suppliers. Notably, during Erdogan’s recent visit to the United States, Turkey’s state-owned BOTAS company secured two major long-term contracts to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US. Over the next two decades, 70 billion cubic meters of LNG will be delivered, starting in 2026. In addition, Turkey has entered a preliminary agreement with Australia’s Woodside Energy for an additional 5.8 billion cubic meters of LNG.
Kadri Tastan, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, notes that the Turkish government has been working diligently to ensure energy security by encouraging local energy production and expanding its LNG sources. This diversification strategy is not purely economic; it also carries significant geopolitical weight. With recent tensions between Turkey and the US, energy deals could serve as a way to ease strained relations. Tastan suggests that these energy agreements could become bargaining chips in future political negotiations, with Turkey potentially using its LNG purchases to secure concessions on other matters.
Turkey has also signed LNG contracts with other countries such as Egypt, Algeria, Qatar, and Nigeria in recent years, further expanding its energy partnerships. However, despite these efforts, experts predict that Turkey’s energy dependence on Russia will remain a significant factor in its energy landscape for the foreseeable future.
Russia and Nuclear Energy: An Unavoidable Partnership
Turkey’s relationship with Russia extends beyond oil and gas. The country also relies on Russian technology for its nuclear energy ambitions. The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, currently under construction in southern Turkey, is being built by Russia’s state-owned Rosatom. The project has faced numerous delays, primarily due to international sanctions against Russia, but Turkish officials insist that the plant will begin operation in 2026, with full completion expected by 2028.
This reliance on Russian nuclear technology further complicates Turkey’s position in the geopolitical landscape. As the country seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, it must still navigate the strategic importance of its nuclear partnership with Moscow.
The Road Ahead: A Geopolitical Tightrope Walk
Looking to the future, Turkey faces a challenging geopolitical tightrope. On one side, there is the West—especially the US and G7 countries—pushing for sanctions against Russia and urging Turkey to reduce its energy ties with Moscow. On the other, Russia remains an essential energy partner for Turkey, providing cheap oil, gas, and nuclear technology. Turkey’s energy policy must therefore evolve through a delicate balancing act, simultaneously satisfying Western demands while safeguarding its own energy security and economic interests.
The coming years will test Turkey’s ability to perform complex geopolitical acrobatics. While Turkey’s diversification efforts are commendable, the country’s energy future will depend on its capacity to navigate the shifting tides of global politics and energy markets. If Ankara is to truly break free from Russian energy dependence, it will need to accelerate its investments in renewable energy, secure alternative energy deals, and, perhaps most importantly, maintain a nuanced diplomatic stance that preserves its strategic autonomy.
